On the Interaction of Non-Ionizing Radiation with People. (2002)
Ruderman,Malvin A., MacDonald,Gordon J.
This report examines the physical basis for many of the thermal and non-thermal interactions between microwaves and the human body. Although a microwave beam incident on the human body dissipates, on...
Evolutionary Branching, Sympatric Speciation, Michael Doebeli, Ulf Dieckmann, Gordon J. Macdonald
Evolutionary branching occurs when frequency-dependent selection splits a phenotypically monomorphic population into two distinct phenotypic clusters. A prerequisite for evolutionary branching is...
Sustainability and the Canadian Forest Sector (2000)
Sten Nilsson, Michael Gluck, Gordon J. Macdonald
This paper was presented as a keynote address at the conference on Forest Sustainability --- Beyond 2000 held in May 2000 in Thunder Bay, Canada. The conference brought together forest sector leaders...
Evolution of Dispersal in Metapopulations with Local Density Dependence . . . (2000)
Gordon J. Macdonald, Di Recto R, I Iasa
Selective pressures governing the evolution of dispersal rates are difficult to evaluate and currently poorly understood. In particular, predictions of evolutionarily stable dispersal strategies have...
An Overview of Remote Sensing in Russian Forestry (2000)
Natalya Malysheva, Anatoly Shvidenko, Sten Nilsson, Gordon J. Macdonald
The Russian Federation possesses vast forested areas, containing about 23% of the world's closed forests. A significant part of these forestlands is neither managed nor regularly monitored. This is...
Wolfgang Lutz, Sergei Scherbov, Maria Dworak, Gustav Feichtinger, Gordon J. Macdonald
This paper discusses one of the most difficult issues in modeling complex populationenvironment interactions: The advantages and disadvantages of highly disaggregated empirical models versus highly...
Wolfgang Lutz, Pertti Saariluoma, Warren C. Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov, Gordon J. Macdonald
All population projections are based in one form or another on expert judgement about likely future trends, structural continuity, etc. Although experts are clearly superior to lay people in their...
Macroeconomic Developments in Hungary and the Accession Process (2000)
This paper evaluates the specific features of Hungary's macroeconomic performance since 1989 and draws up development scenarios for the future. The two scenarios assume accession and non-accession to...
Correlation Analysis of Fitness Landscapes (2000)
Hannelore Brandt, Ulf Dieckmann, Gordon J. Macdonald
Fitness landscapes underlie the dynamics of evolutionary processes and are a key concept of evolutionary theory. Recent research on molecular folding and on evolutionary algorithms has demonstrated...
Landis Mackellar, Tatiana Ermolieva, Gordon J. Macdonald
The model presented here is a neoclassical two-factor multiregional economicdemographic growth model. It is designed to assess the impacts of different . demographic futures, . labor-market...
International Diversification of Pension Assets is No Panacea For Population Aging (1999)
Landis Mackellar, Helmut Reisen, Gordon J. Macdonald
Six years ago, The Economist wrote that investing retirement savings from aging developed countries in the emerging markets of still-youthful developing countries promised to "beat demography." As...
Analysis and Forecasting of Social Security: A Study of Robustness (1999)
Anders Westlund, Tatiana Ermolieva, Landis Mackellar, Gordon J. Macdonald
In this paper, we analyze the robustness of an economic-demographic projection model emphasizing the macroeconomic impact of age-structured savings and consumption behavior. The parameters varied are...
Interim Report IR-99-063 Variances of Population Projections: Comparison of Two Approaches (1999)
Dietmar Bauer, Gustav Feichtinger, Wolfgang Lutz, Warren Sanderson, Gordon J. Macdonald
There has been a recent upsurge of interest in probabilistic population projections. Two methods have been suggested in the literature for forecasting the inputs into those projections: (1) a random...
Landis Mackellar, Tatiana Ermolieva, Gordon J. Macdonald
In this paper, we quantify the impact of globalization (i.e., integration of global capital markets) on intergenerational transfers mediated through Pay As You Go (PAYG) public pension systems in...
Forest and Temperature Associations of Russia Relating to Global Climate Warming (1999)
Vladimir Stolbovoi, Sten Nilsson, Gordon J. Macdonald
We have developed forest and temperature associations for Russia that relate forest communities of Russia with mean annual temperature, standard deviation of mean annual temperature, and temperature...
Globalization, Social Security, and Intergenerational Transfers (1999)
Landis Mackellar, Tatiana Ermolieva, Gordon J. Macdonald
In this paper, we quantify the impact of globalization (i.e., integration of global capital markets) on intergenerational transfers mediated through Pay As You Go (PAYG) public pension systems in...
this paper, we will suppose that the population is unstructured, the environment is constant, and the population dynamics converge to a fixed-point attractor. However, we think that our conclusions...
Wolfgang Lutz, Sergei Scherbov, Gordon J. Macdonald
This paper develops a quantitative simulation model linking population parameters and education to land degradation, food production and distribution, and resulting in the proportion of the...
How should we define fitness in structured metapopulation models? Including an . . . (1999)
J. A. J. Metz, M. Gyllenberg, Gordon J. Macdonald
We define a fitness concept applicable to structured metapopulations consisting of infinitely many equally coupled patches, and provide means for calculating its numerical value. In addition we...
On Fitness in Structured Metapopulations (1999)
J. A. J. Metz, Gordon J. Macdonald
In this paper we present a mathematical definition of fitness in general structured metapopulation models. We apply the theory to a model structured by local population size and in which local...
On The Origin of Species by Sympatric Speciation (1999)
Ulf Dieckmann, Michael Doebeli, Gordon J. Macdonald
Understanding speciation is a fundamental biological problem. It is believed that many species originated through allopatric divergence in geographically isolated populations of the same ancestral...
Tatiana Ermolieva, Landis Mackellar, Anders Westlund, Gordon J. Macdonald
The robustness analysis presented in this paper is a part of the work done to develop and verify the properties of a stochastic macroeconomic-demographic growth model focused on social security...
World Wide Web Robot for Extreme Datamining with Swiss-Tx Supercomputers (1999)
Armin S. A. Roehrl, Martin Frey, R. Alexander Roehrl, Gordon J. Macdonald
This paper discusses the software and hardware issues of designing a highly parallel robot for extreme datamining on the Internet. As a sample application, a World Wide Web server count experiment...
The Ukrainian Forest Sector in a Global Perspective (1999)
Sten Nilsson, Anatoly Shvidenko, Gordon J. Macdonald
This paper was prepared for and presented at the so-called IIASA Days in Kiev, Ukraine held on 18--19 March 1999. The paper discusses the possible long-term development of the international forest...
What Do We Know About Future Changes . . . (1999)
In Europe, Wolfgang Lutz, Sergei Scherbov, Gordon J. Macdonald
This report presents the first probabilistic population forecasts for the European Union following the approach of expert based probabilistic projections as developed at IIASA. The central, high and...
Accession to the EU: A Continuation of or a Departure from Transition Reforms (1999)
Since the start of the political and economic transition in Central and Eastern Europe, much of the transformation was embedded in the process of leaving the Eastern alliance and joining the Western...
Analysis and Forecast of Social Security: A Study of Robustness (1999)
Anders Westlund, Tatiana Ermolieva, Landis Mackellar, Gordon J. Macdonald
In this paper, we analyze the robustness of an economic-demographic projection model emphasizing the macroeconomic impact of age-structured savings and consumption behavior. The parameters varied are...
Phytomass, Increment, Mortality and Carbon Budget of Russian Forests (1998)
Anatoly Shvidenko, Sten Nilsson, Gordon J. Macdonald
This report, produced by Professors Anatoly Shvidenko and Sten Nilsson of the core-
For Sustainable Forest Management, Szymon Wilk, Matti Flinkman, Wojtek Michalowski, Sten Nilsson, Roman Slowinski, ...
This paper attempts to identify characteristics for biodiversity and other (forest) ecosystem conditions that are considered essential for a description of ecosystem functioning and development of...
Modeling Industrial Dynamics with Innovative Entrants (1998)
S. G. Winter, Y. M. Kaniovski, G. Dosi, Gordon J. Macdonald
The paper analyzes some generic features of industrial dynamics whereby innovative change is carried, stochastically, by new entrants. Relying on the formal representation suggested in Winter et al....
Wheat Yield Functions for Analysis of Land-Use Change in China (1998)
Ana Iglesias, Yanhua Liu, Walter Baethgen (baethgen+aea-undp. Org. Uy, James W. Jones, Gordon J. Macdonald
CERES-Wheat, a dynamic process crop growth model is specified and validated for eight sites in the major wheat-growing regions of China. Crop model results are then used to test functional forms for...
EMU: Perceptions and Challenges (1998)
Elizabeth Muller, Gordon J. Macdonald
This paper will take as its focus another aspect of EMU: the possibility of reconciling the different analyses. I will argue that monetary union is best understood as a process rather than as a...
The Balance Of Cultivated Land In China During 1988-1995 (1998)
Gnther Fischer, Yufeng Chen, Laixiang Sun, Gordon J. Macdonald
iii Acknowledgements iv About the Authors v Introduction 1 1. Collection of data 2 1.1 The sources of information 2 1.2 Comparison with land data from State Statistical Bureau of China 3 2. The...
Vladimir Stolbovoi, Gnther Fischer, Vasiliy Sizov, Boris Sheremet, Sergey Ovechkin, Svetlana Rojkova (kravets, ...
The IIASA/LUC georeferenced database for the former USSR (in part only for Russia), was created within the framework of the project "Modeling of Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Europe and Northern...
Richard Law, Ulf Dieckmann, Gordon J. Macdonald
A model for the coevolution of two species in facultative symbiosis is used to investigate conditions under which species merge to form a single reproductive unit. Two traits evolve in each species,...
Andrea P. Bassanini, Giovanni Dosi, Gordon J. Macdonald
This paper is motivated by two 'stylized facts' concerning the dynamics of di#usion of di#erent technologies competing for the same market niche. a) A stable pattern of market sharing with no...
Constraint Aggregation in Infinite-Dimensional Spaces and Applications (1998)
Arkadii V. Kryazhimskii, Gordon J. Macdonald
An aggregation technique for constraints with values in Hilbert spaces is suggested. The technique allows to replace the original optimization problem by a sequence of subproblems having scalar or...
A New Digital Georeferenced Database of Soil Degradation in Russia (1997)
Vladimir Stolbovoi, Gordon J. Macdonald
this paper are twofold:
Sensitivity ANalysis of Expert-Based . . . (1997)
Wolfgang Lutz, Sergei Scherbov, Gordon J. Macdonald
The traditional way of dealing with uncertainty in population projections through high and low variants is unsatisfactory because it remains unclear what range of uncertainty these alternative paths...
Russian Forest Sector - Welfare Indicators (1997)
Bengt Lundquist, Sten Nilsson, Uno Zackrisson, Gordon J. Macdonald
This report, carried out by Dr. Lundquist and Prof. Zackrisson of Ume University, Sweden, and Prof. Nilsson of the study's core team, is a contribution to the analyses of the topic of...
From Stochastic Dominance to Mean-Risk Models: Semideviations as Risk Measures (1997)
Andrzej Ruszczy Nski, Gordon J. Macdonald
Two methods are frequently used for modeling the choice among uncertain outcomes: stochastic dominance and mean--risk approaches. The former is based on an axiomatic model of risk-averse preferences...
On Stochastic Dominance and Mean-Semideviation Models (1997)
We analyse relations between two methods frequently used for modeling the choice among uncertain outcomes: stochastic dominance and mean--risk approaches. The concept of ff-consistency of these...
Russian Forrest Sector - Human Resources (1997)
Sten Nilsson, Uno Zackrisson, Gordon J. Macdonald
This report, carried out by Dr. Granåsen and Prof. Zackrisson of Umeå University, Sweden, and Prof. Nilsson of the study's core team, is a contribution to the analyses of the topic of...
A Baseline Model of Industry Evolution (1997)
S. G. Winter, Y. M. Kaniovski, G. Dosi, Gordon J. Macdonald
This paper analyses the properties and outcomes of competitive dynamics in industries characterized by heterogeneous firms and continuing stochastic entry. In that setting aggregate economic...
A New Digital Georeferenced Database of Grassland in China (1970)
Yufeng Chen, Gnther Fischer, Gordon J. Macdonald
iii Acknowledgments iv About the Authors v Introduction 1 1. General description of the source map 2 1.1 Contents of the source map 2 1.2 The minimum area of mapped polygons 3 1.3 Compilation of the...
Soil Data Derived from WISE for use in Global and Regional AEZ Studies (1970)
N. H. Batjes, G. Fischer, V. S. Stolbovoy, Gordon J. Macdonald
................................................................................................................................................................. ii 1...
Vladimir Stolbovoi, Gnther Fischer, Boris Sheremet, Svetlana Rojkova (kravets, Gordon J. Macdonald
Acknowledgments Authors Introduction 1 Description of the Source Map and Projection Parameters 2 Principles of Agricultural Regionalization 2 Projection Parameters 5 Description of the Database...
Energy Perspectives For Eurasia And The Kyoto Protocol (1970)
Nebojsa Naki Cenovi C, Gordon J. Macdonald
In collaboration with the World Energy Council (WEC), IIASA conducted a five-year study of long-term global and regional energy perspectives. Using IIASA's integrated modeling framework, the study...
Vladimir Stolbovoi, Gnther Fischer, Vasiliy Sizov, Gordon J. Macdonald
The IIASA/LUC georeferenced database for the former U.S.S.R. was created within the framework of the project "Modeling Land-Use and Land Cover Changes in Europe and Northern Asia" (LUC). For Russia,...
Exploring the Unknown On Entrepreneurship, Coordination and Innovation Driven Growth (1970)
Giovanni Dosi, Giorgio Fagiolo, Gordon J. Macdonald
Notwithstanding the revival of attention recently displayed by the economic discipline about self-sustained processes of economic growth fueled by technological advances, an enormous gap still...
Spectrum of 100-kyr glacial cycle: Orbital inclination, not eccentricity
Muller, Richard A., MacDonald, Gordon J.
Spectral analysis of climate data shows a strong narrow peak with period ≈100 kyr, attributed by the Milankovitch theory to changes in the eccentricity of the earth’s orbit. The narrowness of the...
Spectrum of 100-kyr glacial cycle: Orbital inclination, not eccentricity
Muller, Richard A., MacDonald, Gordon J.
Spectral analysis of climate data shows a strong narrow peak with period ≈100 kyr, attributed by the Milankovitch theory to changes in the eccentricity of the earth’s orbit. The narrowness of the...